Why a high win rate does not mean you made money

The first thing everyone looks at is the win rate. That is reasonable: it is a single number, easy to compare, and higher sounds better than lower. The problem is that it says almost nothing about the only question that matters — whether someone following those tips came out ahead.

Take two tiptopers. The first recommends only clear favourites, at average odds of 1.20, and is right 85% of the time. The second recommends less likely outcomes, at average odds of 3.00, and is right only 40% of the time. Which is better?

Over 100 tips from the first: 85 wins returning 0.20 each, and 15 losses costing a full unit each. That is 17 minus 15 — a profit of two units. The second: 40 wins returning 2.00 each, and 60 losses. 80 minus 60 — a profit of 20 units, ten times as much. And that is while being wrong most of the time.

This is not an arithmetic trick — it is the ordinary state of the field. Short odds mean the bookmaker already thinks the outcome is likely, which is why they pay little. To profit from short odds you have to be right almost always, and almost nobody manages that over time. Real profit comes from finding cases where the odds are longer than the true chance — what is called value.

That is why TipTop does not rank on win rate. The ranking accounts for the odds of every tip, and the number shown next to each tiptoper is return. Return says how much each unit staked came back on average, which is exactly the number that answers “did I come out ahead”. The win rate is still shown, but always alongside the average odds, because without knowing what odds are involved, the percentage alone cannot be interpreted.

The practical takeaway is simple: when comparing two tiptopers, do not stop at the percentage. Look at the return, and look at the average odds next to it. A lower percentage at longer odds is usually the better story.